Brookings: "Stark" Differences in Performance for Largest 100 U.S. Metros by Mid-2009

The differences in economic performance among the metropolitan areas with the largest populations are vast, as a few metros already are emerging from the recession and others are in danger of being left behind, according to a recent brief by the Brookings Institution. To be issued every quarter, last week's MetroMonitor: Tracking Economic Recession and Recovery in America's 100 Largest Metropolitan Areas examines changes in employment, unemployment rate, gross metro product (GMP), housing prices and foreclosed properties through the end of June 2009.

In what Brookings has labeled the 20 best-performing metros (located mostly in and around Texas and the inland Northeast), the number of employed workers was down on average 1.7 percent since pre-recession peaks and 17 of them have seen housing prices increase since June of last year. For the 20 weakest-performing metros (located in Florida, inland California, and around the Great Lakes) employment has wilted an average of 8.2 percent from their peaks and housing prices dropped an average of 11 percent.

Using Moody's data on GMP, only 20 of the 100 metros had a gross metro product in the second quarter of 2009 larger than the first quarter. From their pre-recession peaks, the top 100 metros had a decline of 3.7 percent by June, worse than the 2.8 decrease for the entire U.S. While Detroit's decline in GMP was the worst among the metros, dropping 14.5 percent from its peak, there were three metros - those centered around Austin (TX), Washington D.C., and McAllen (TX) - which have surpassed their pre-recession peak output.

None of the metros, however, have surpassed their pre-recession peaks in employment levels. Out of the 100 metros, only the five centered around Akron (OH), Columbia (SC), McAllen (TX), Buffalo (NY), and Madison (WI) had either broken even or added jobs from the first quarter to the second quarter of 2009.

Changes in employment levels were linked strongly to the economic concentrations of certain industries. For example, while employment across the U.S. declined 4.1 percent from its peak in the fourth quarter 2007 to the second quarter of this year, during the same period employment dropped by a much larger 5.6 percent for the 12 metros with strong specializations in automobile and auto parts manufacturing.

For the 14 other metros that specialize in manufacturing apart from the auto industry, employment levels dropped by 4.0 percent, better than the national average. Also faring better than the national average were the nine metro areas with heavy concentrations in banking and 21 other metro areas that specialize in non-banking forms of financial services.

The report, MetroMonitor: Tracking Economic Recession and Recovery in America's 100 Largest Metropolitan Areas, in addition to individual profiles for each of the metro areas, is available at: http://www.brookings.edu/metro/MetroMonitor.aspx