Does the U.S. Face A Shortage of Scientists?

Sloan Foundation exec says no

At several intervals during the past 50 years, various reports have argued that the U.S. was or would soon be confronted with a shortage of scientists and engineers in various fields. If a crisis did arise, it could play havoc on local and state technology-based economic development efforts dependent on a technologically skilled workforce for innovation and growth. But is there a real risk?

Michael Teitelbaum, program director at the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, says no. He believes that this perception is mistaken for a multitude of reasons and suggests even policy solutions aimed to correct the alleged problem are misguided. Do We Need More Scientists?, an article in the Fall 2003 issue of Public Interest, summarizes Teitelbaum's conclusions and recommendations on what he perceives are more appropriate policies for encouraging scientific discovery and innovation.

Teiltelbaum draws on a 1998 study by the US General Accounting Office and an early 2003 report from the RAND Institute to support his position. The GAO issued a critical assessment of a mid-1980s National Science Foundation report that received wide circulation, citing weak methodologies and low response rates. In early 2003, a RAND study assembled data from previous studies regarding the professed shortage and concluded that data concerning earnings and unemployment did not support the shortage assertion.

The current economic climate, with the number of laid off information technology workers and the restructuring of the U.S. manufacturing base, would suggest a shortage of engineers is not likely in the near future.

Teitelbaum also suggests that even though forecasts of an impending shortage of scientists and engineers may be flawed, proposed solutions to the perceived problem have been misdirected. Most policies and programs address the supply side of the equation, trying to entice more K-12 students into studying math and science or encouraging undergraduates to major in science or engineering fields. Still other supply side approaches include drawing more foreign engineers and scientists into the country to counterbalance the "low" number of American workers available.

If the demand isn't present for the increased number of scientists and engineers, the result of these efforts will be to drive down the wages of these occupations, making them less attractive to many future students choosing promising career paths.

The key, Teitelbaum asserts, is to make careers in science more attractive. Educational requirements for scientists usually require a Ph.D. and some amount of postdoctoral work — the direct financial cost of earning such a degree can serve as a strong deterrent or barrier for many prospective students. Many bright individuals, instead, choose to pursue a career in law, business or some other field in which they can begin to accumulate their lifetime earnings relatively quickly. The “opportunity cost” of becoming a scientist it too great for many of today’s best students, particularly those not planning to enter the medical profession.

In addition, the educational requirements mean many cannot began their career in earnest until their early thirties, which can then pose a conflict with any marriage or family life goals. The best and brightest that might be attracted to careers in science, Teitelbaum holds, are understandably apprehensive that such a professional choice may present too high an individual price.

The article concludes by suggesting that those concerned about the future of science and engineering in the U.S. should encourage students interested in a potential career path in science to objectively appraise the situation, weighing both the advantages and disadvantages, instead of raising false flags concerning shortages. The essential goal must be making careers in science and engineering attractive relative to the alternative career paths. This type of effort is necessary to ensure a supply of scientists and engineers proportionate with the science and engineering needs of the country.

The complete text of Do We Need More Scientists can be found at: http://www.thepublicinterest.com/current/article2.html