Heavy Job Loss Forecasted for 2002, Study Finds

Some of the biggest tourist destinations in the U.S. — Las Vegas, Reno, Atlantic City, Orlando and Honolulu — and the biggest cities — New York, Los Angeles and Chicago — will suffer heavy job losses as a result of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, according to a new study from the Milken Institute.

Metropolitan Economies in the Wake of 9/11 includes a detailed analysis of those industries and metropolitan areas hardest hit by Sept. 11 and examines the overall U.S. economy in light of the attacks and recession.

Las Vegas, expected to have nearly 5 percent fewer jobs in 2002 than it would have had without the attacks, will suffer more than any other metro area, the study says. Myrtle Beach, S.C., and New York City are second and third, respectively, with projected declines of 3.6 percent and 3.42 percent.

The remaining top 10 hardest hit (with percentages in parentheses) are: Reno (3.15), Atlantic City (2.98), Orlando (2.85), Wichita, KA (2.81), Flagstaff, AZ (2.61), Honolulu (2.57) and Forth Worth (2.45).

New York City will see the most job losses in 2002 — nearly 150,000 fewer than it was expected to have in 2002 prior to the events of Sept. 11 — according to the report. Second-worst hit will be Los Angeles, with 69,000 jobs predicted to be lost this year. Chicago is third with a projected loss of more than 68,000 jobs.

All told, the Milken Institute finds that metropolitan areas across the U.S. will lose an estimated 1.64 million jobs this year as a direct result of the Sept. 11 attacks, and almost half of the jobs will come from the air transportation, hotels, amusement and dining industries. The report also predicts that the U.S. economy will remain in a recession until the second quarter 2002.

The study looked at all 315 metro areas in the U.S. and analyzed their economic trends prior to Sept. 11. Milken Institute scholars then examined hundreds of industries in those cities to see what has happened since the terrorist attacks. Using its economic models, the Milken Institute compared before-and-after scenarios to forecast the long-term employment losses expected in each metro as a result of the attacks.

In addition to the report, the Milken Institute has provided tables in the following categories:

• 315 metros ranked by percentage of job losses
• 315 metros ranked by total job losses
• Overall industry breakdown of all job losses caused by Sept. 11
• Industries hardest hit by Sept. 11 (percentage of job losses)

To receive a copy of Metropolitan Economies in the Wake of 9/11 and obtain access to the tables above, please visit: http://www.milkeninstitute.org/poe.cfm?point=presrel