NSB Sounds Warning Bell for S&E Workforce

The lack of encouraging news in the culminating report from the National Science Board’s (NSB) three-year study of America’s science and engineering (S&E) workforce is offset only by the urgent call to recognize and counter increased global competition and disturbing demographic trends and projections.

The Science and Engineering Workforce: Realizing America’s Potential concludes:

• "Global competition for S&E talent is intensifying, such that the United States may not be able to rely on the international S&E labor market to fulfill unmet skill needs; and,
• The number of native-born S&E graduates entering the workforce is likely to decline unless the Nation intervenes to improve success in educating S&E students from all demographic groups, especially those that have been underrepresented in S&E careers.”

The challenges are daunting, as the facts lay bare. Science and technology are widely recognized to provide the cornerstone of economic growth in the U.S and will continue to do so. The long-term projected growth rate for S&E occupations is four times that of non-S&E occupations, according to the National Science Foundation’s Science & Engineering Indicators – 2002.

Despite these projections, the number of natural S&E degrees awarded in the U.S. has declined 1.1 percent since 1985. If biological sciences are excluded, the number of natural S&E baccalaureates awarded has dropped an alarming 18.6 percent.

The country has been dependent on an injection of foreign-born scientists and engineers to make up the shortfall. The U.S. economy grew increasingly dependent of foreign-born scientists and engineers during the 1990s, according to the NSB report. “For all degree levels, the share of U.S. S&E occupations filled by scientists and engineers who were born abroad increased from 14 to 22 percent” between 1990 and 2000, the report states. For doctoral degrees, the increase was even greater, from 24 percent in 1990 to 38 percent 10 years later.

As the economies flourish in nations that traditionally have exported many of their brightest minds to the U.S. for schooling and careers, and as American corporate outsourcing expands into research and development activities, the prospect of foreign S&E graduates coming to school here or remaining after graduation diminishes.

A telling statistic for the increased international demand for S&E graduates is the ratio of natural S&E first university degrees to the 24-year-old population in a country. The report points out that, in 1975, the U.S. was third behind Japan and Finland for the number of natural S&E degrees per 100 24-year-olds. By 1999, the U.S. had fallen to 14th.

The U.S. S&E workforce also is aging. More than half are over the age of 40 and could be retiring within the next 25 years. The number of workers between the ages of 40-44 is four times that of the 60-64 age group.

If the prospect of replacing those aging S&E workers with international S&E graduates is getting more difficult based on mounting global competition, then the nation must turn increasingly to domestic graduates.

It is in the domestic S&E graduation rates that the picture becomes even more bleak – if current trends continue. Whites presently account for more than two-thirds of all natural S&E degrees among 24-year-olds. Within the next two decades, however, whites as a percentage of the 18- to 24-year-old population are projected by the Census Bureau to decline from 66 percent to 55 percent.  Population groups currently underrepresented in the S&E workforce – Blacks, Hispanics and Native Americans – are projected to collectively account for 38 percent of the population by 2025. Hispanics, expected to see the greatest increase in numbers, have the lowest ratio of natural S&E degrees per 100 24-year-olds.

The NSB issues an imperative calling for the federal government and its agencies to “step forward to ensure the adequacy of the U.S. science and engineering workforce. All stakeholders must mobilize and initiate efforts that increase the number of U.S. citizens pursuing science and engineering studies and careers.” Several specific recommendations are outlined under the following statements:

• The federal government must direct substantial new support to students and institutions in order to improve success in S&E study by American undergraduates from all demographic groups.
• Federal support for research and graduate and postdoctoral education should respond to the real economic needs of students and promote a wider range of educational options responsive to national skill needs.
• To support development of effective S&E workforce policies and strategies, the federal government must: a) substantially raise its investment in research that advances the state of knowledge on international S&E workforce dynamics; b) lead a national effort to build a base of information on the current status of the S&E workforce, national S&E skill needs and utilization, and strategies that attract high-ability students and professionals to S&E careers.
• In partnership with other stakeholders, the federal government should act now to attract and retain an adequate cadre of well qualified precollege teachers of mathematics, science and technology.
• During the current reexamination of visa and other policies concerning the mobility of scientists and engineers, it is essential that future U.S. policies: a) strengthen the capacity of U.S. research universities to sustain their leadership role in increasingly competitive international S&E education; b) strongly support opportunities for American students and faculty to participate in international S&E education and research; and c) while enhancing our homeland and national security, maintain the ability of the U.S. to attract internationally competitive researchers, faculty and students.

The Science and Engineering Workforce: Realizing America’s Potential is available at: http://www.nsf.gov/nsb/documents/2003/nsb0369/start.htm