Studies Provide Alternative Approaches to Measuring Brain Drain

A continuing concern of many TBED organizations is the departure of university graduates from their communities, leaving at various stages of their lives and taking their talent and education with them. The resulting "brain drain" from this exodus leaves many states with the frustration of paying the costs to educate its citizens, but not reaping the benefits of an educated workforce. For example, a survey completed two weeks ago by the Detroit Free Press reported 53 percent of students at Michigan's three largest universities (University of Michigan, Michigan State University, and Wayne State University) were definitely planning to leave the state after graduation. The main reason for leaving, cited by 47 percent of respondents, was to go where good jobs are located. A secondary reason, named by 24 percent of departing graduates, was the desire to see what it is like somewhere else outside of Michigan.



Questions facing policymakers addressing brain drain include: What are the various measurable components of the brain drain problem in my locality, and what can be done to fix it?



A recent report about the retention rate in Vermont concludes that keeping younger people from leaving is "an exercise in futility" and efforts should target bringing back those who have left. Produced by TIP Strategies, Next Generation Consulting, and the Vermont State Data Center, Growing Vermont's Next Generation Workforce combines migration and occupational data with polling research to show who is entering and leaving the state and for what reasons. Engaging nearly 3,000 alumni from various Vermont colleges and universities, 40 percent responded that they have considered moving back to Vermont, with the high cost of living and the perceived lack of job opportunities cited as the primary barriers to relocation. According to the authors, if a marketing campaign addresses these reasons, the campaign would "have a high likelihood of success."



This report also discusses strategies to retain graduates, as more than half of Vermont college students come from outside of the state. One suggestion is to increase the opportunity for students to have internships at local companies, which they find increases the likelihood of students to remain in the state by 75 percent. Encouraging initiatives that anchor people to a place might put a dent in the report's estimate that four out of five Vermont college graduates leave the state one year after graduation.



But alternative research methods are showing that the percentages may be drastically different in other states, with the loss of human capital not as bad in some places as originally feared. For example, a report released last month by the Center for Business and Economic Research at the University of Tennessee finds 84 percent of graduates from Tennessee's higher education institutions remain in the state one year after graduation, either working or continuing their education. This percentage decreases in subsequent years, with 76 percent of graduates remaining in the state after four years and 70 percent after seven years, the authors found. The study considered 207,600 graduates from Tennessee public institutions from 1997 to 2005 and data from the state's unemployment insurance system to reach these conclusions.



Another study was completed for the state of Maine and utilized 1,789 people 5-8 years after graduation as their sample. The authors of the newest version of Maine's College Graduates: Where They Go and Why found that 49 percent of graduates from higher education institutions in Maine remain in the state. Additionally, of those who graduated from universities outside of the state, 55 percent returned to Maine to live and work. The top three reasons people chose to stay included being closer to friends and family, recreational activities, and cultural and social reasons. Those who left Maine cited different reasons for leaving, the most important being better career opportunities, followed by the discovery of a job outside of the state, then better pay and benefits. The report concludes that Maine "is not losing as many of its college educated young people as originally assumed."



Perhaps, a good first step to increase the retention rate of university graduates is to correctly measure both the size of the problem and the reasons of individuals remaining and leaving the state. This collection of studies includes interesting examples of how to approach and analyze the brain drain question.



Published in 2006 by the Center for Education Policy, Applied Research, and Evaluation at the University of Southern Maine, Maine's College Graduates: Where They Go and Why can be downloaded at:

http://www.usm.maine.edu/cepare/Reports/Where_They_Go_and_Why_Revisited.pdf



School-to-Work: Do Tennessee's Higher Education Graduates Work in Tennessee? can be found at http://cber.bus.utk.edu/THEC/thec_pt1.pdf



Growing Vermont's Next Generation Workforce contains a summary of other recent reports that have looked at the brain drain question and is available at: http://www.thinkvermont.com/publications/index.cfm