Understanding the global growth potential of AI

The AI market is projected to reach $4.8 trillion by 2023—a 25x increase in just 10 years, according to the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) 2025 Technology and Innovation report. The technology will be leap-frogging other “frontier tech markets,” including the Internet of Things, which currently dominates 36% of the market for emerging platform technologies. The super-charged AI market will impact up to 40% of global jobs, both positively and negatively. How this growth will affect jobs in different countries and how the effects could be directed to increase fairness globally is of great concern to UNCTAD and the focus of the new report.

UNCTAD asserts that up to one-third of jobs in nations with advanced economies are at risk because of efficiency gains resulting from AI automation. "Workforces in advanced economies are at greater risk since more of their jobs involve cognitive tasks,” said the report authors, but added, “However, these economies are also better positioned than emerging and low-income economies to capitalize on the benefits of AI.”

In contrast, 24% of jobs in nations with emerging economies and 18% of jobs in low-income economies are at risk as no longer being necessary because of AI’s expanding capabilities. Additionally, these nations may not be ready to harness AI’s benefits because they do not have the required power, water, infrastructure, data, and skills. Without improvements in these foundational AI areas, the work conducted in emerging economies may be completely replaced AI adoption elsewhere. Infrastructure improvements, as outlined in the report, would include:

• upgrades to electricity, the internet, and computing power;
• regulatory improvements promoting open data and sharing to improve storage, access, and collaboration, while ensuring privacy, accountability and IP protections to balance innovation with human rights; and
• training and skill development bolstered by integrating STEM and AI into all levels of the education system and fostering industry partnerships to develop talent aligned with industry needs.

Generally, the most developed countries are AI leaders, but several developing countries, including Brazil, China, India, and the Philippines, are outperforming in technology readiness. All four of these nations have strengthened infrastructure to support internet access and cross-border connectivity. China leads the four countries in data affordability and volume. The report uses the number of developers on GitHub as an indicator for AI development capacity. These numbers are also higher than might be expected in these four countries. There were 12,810 developers in India and 9,076 in China (only the U.S., with 19,743, has more.)  The report includes both Brazil and the Philippines on its list of economies with the fastest growth in number of developers.

Regarding AI-based growth, the ‘developing country’ label may be mis-applied to Brazil, China, India and the Philippines. As evidence, these four nations invest heavily in R&D and industrial capacity, helping them keep up with technological changes and even take the lead in some sectors.

Currently only a few countries, all G7 countries, are deciding AI’s future. More promising, according to the report, though, are the up to 75 nations actively participating in seven major AI governance initiatives. One-hundred-eighteen countries, mainly developing countries, are on the sidelines and not directly involved in the guiding governance efforts. UNCTAD stresses in the report that global collaboration, including developing countries, is essential to ensure AI serves the broader public good, saying, "the lack of [broader global] representation is alarming.”