Useful Stats: Industry Output & Employment Projections through 2010

Gaining a sense of how industries are likely to grow or contract over the next decade can be a vital tool for determining the priorities for tech-based economic development practitioners, public and private investing programs, and workforce developers. These figures are particularly relevant for geographic areas looking at cluster development strategies or targeted research/investment programs. 



The November issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, includes an article by Jay Berman projecting industry output and employment projections for the first decade of the 21st century. 



Computer and data processing services (Standard Industrial Classification Code 737) continues to top the chart of fastest growing industries with an average annual rate of 6.4 percent growth for 2000-2010. Projected output for the field is expected to grow by an annual rate of 8 percent. 



The national average growth for all non-farm wage and salary employment is projected to be 1.6 percent annually over the decade. Selected individual sector employment growth projections include: 

• Engineering, management, and other services (SIC 87, 89) — 3.1 percent (includes research and testing services growth of 3.3 percent) 
• Drugs (SIC 283) — 2.2 percent 
• Aerospace (SIC 372, 376) — 1.7 percent 
• Medical equipment, instrumentation and supplies (SIC 384) — 1.6 percent 
• Communications (SIC 2-digit code 48) — 1.6 percent 
• Retail Trade (SIC 52-59) — 1.3 percent 
• Finance, Insurance & Real Estate (SIC 60-67) — 0.9 percent 
• Electronics (SIC 36) — 0.6 percent (electronic components and accessories (SIC 367) was the only industry in the sector to reach the national average of 1.6 percent) 
• All Manufacturing (SIC 20-39) — 0.3 percent (fields at or above the national average included wood buildings and mobile homes, office furniture, construction machinery, metal coating and related, and misc. fabricated metal products) 

Annual output growth rates for key sectors are: 

• Communications — 6 percent 
• Drugs — 5.6 percent 
• Electronics (SIC 36) — 5.3 percent 
• Transportation (40-42, 44-47) — 4.4 percent 
• Rubber & plastics (SIC 30) — 4 percent 
• Engineering, management, and other services — 3.9 percent 
• Medical equipment, instrumentation and supplies — 3.4 percent 
• Chemical and allied (SIC 28) — 3.3 percent 
• All Manufacturing — 3.2 percent 
• National average for all non-farm wage & salary employment — 3.2 percent 
• Finance, Insurance & Real Estate — 3 percent  
• Retail Trade — 2.9 percent 

Note: Developed with data collected prior to September 11, the projections do not take into account the dramatic shifts in economic priorities and spending as a result of the terrorist attacks and resulting war. The Bureau will be monitoring the economic and employment impact of the attacks to adjust the projections accordingly. 



The full 18-page article, including statistics for other SIC categories and subcodes, is available at: http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2001/11/art3full.pdf