Useful Stats: Number of High School Graduates to Peak in 2008-09

When this year's high school freshmen receive their diplomas in four years, it will mark the largest and most competitive graduating class ever, according to a new study. Released by the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), ACT Inc. and the College Board, the study projects the number of high school graduates will peak in 2008-09 at 3.2 million. A slow but steady decline in the number of enrollments and graduates is expected to occur in most parts of the U.S., following the peak year.

Among regions, the West is projected to see highest percentage of growth, with elementary and secondary enrollments climbing by 9 percent between 2001-02 and 2007-08. The South will experience a 5 percent increase, the study observes, while the Midwest and Northeast will drop by 9 percent and 2 percent, respectively. Nationally, annual increases in the number of graduates are projected to range from about 6,300 (0.2 percent increase) to 79,000 (2.5 percent increase) between 2001-02 and 2017-18.

The size of graduating classes across individual states will vary, according to the data. Arizona, for example, is projected to experience 55 percent growth between 2001-02 and 2017-18. Other states such as Massachusetts - expected to see a 2 percent decline over the same period - would experience overall decreases.

It is worth noting that 13 of 20 states projected to experience a decline in high school graduates are Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) states. A program of the National Science Foundation, EPSCoR promotes economic growth through states' science and technology resources and partnerships involving universities, industry and government. Nine of the bottom 10 places in the WICHE study are held by EPSCoR states. Four EPSCoR states are expected to see only a 2 percent increase.

Of the 10 states likely to see the greatest increase in high school graduates, eight are in areas expected to grow significantly in total population (e.g., the South and Southwest). A notable exception is Indiana, which based on the report's projections could see a 25.7 percent climb. Efforts in Indiana like those supported by the Lilly Endowment to increase the number of college graduates and the number of students in math and science (see article in this week's Digest) could be particularly beneficial given the dour projections of the National Science Board's workforce report (also covered in this issue of the Digest).

SSTI has prepared a table showing the number of each state's high school graduates in 2001-02 and those projected for 2017-18, as well as U.S. totals for the target years. The table is arranged by percentage change between the two columns, from largest (positive growth) to smallest (negative growth), and is available at: http://www.ssti.org/Digest/Tables/030504t.htm

Fifteen western states comprise WICHE, a regional organization dedicated to improving higher education systems. Copies of the study, Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates by State, Income and Race/Ethnicity, are available for purchase from WICHE. For ordering information, visit: http://www.wiche.edu/pubs/cart_subj.asp?pub_id=269