Mayors Report: Metro Areas Lose 1 million-plus Jobs in 2001-02

In 2003, the nation's 20 top metropolitan areas will generate $4 trillion in output, or 36 percent of the national economy, according to a new report by the U.S. Conference of Mayors and the Conference’s Council for Investment in the New American City. However, overall employment growth this year is predicted to be 0.1 percent in those same metro areas, with nine experiencing either no job growth or continued employment contraction.

The Role of Metro Areas in the US Economy: Employment Outlook reports the nation's 319 metro areas lost nearly 1.01 million jobs in 2001 and 2002, three times the job loss outlined in preliminary government estimates in January. The projected job growth rate of 0.1 percent for 2003 represents a significant downward revision from the January report, which predicted the rate to be 0.9 percent.

The unemployment rate is unlikely to decline until jobs grow at an annual rate of 1 percent – predicted to occur this year in only Phoenix-Mesa (1.6 percent) and San Diego (1 percent) – the report states. Of the top 20 U.S. metro areas, those with the predicted greatest job losses in 2003 are San Francisco (-1.3 percent), Detroit (-1.2 percent), Philadelphia (-0.7 percent), Boston (-0.6 percent), and Minneapolis-St. Paul (-0.5 percent). Outside of Pheonix-Mesa and San Diego, other top 20 metro areas projected to experience the greatest job gains are Chicago, Denver, Washington, D.C., and Oakland.

A sector-by-sector analysis included in the report forecasts significant 2003 job losses in manufacturing (-2.9 percent), transportation-communications-utilities (-1.4 percent), and construction-mining (-0.6 percent). Manufacturing employment is projected to decline in all of the nation's 20 largest metro areas.

The report assumes a strong pickup in national economic growth during the second half of 2003, due in part to fiscal stimulus from the recent tax package. If a strong second-half recovery does not materialize, the report cautions, then the top 20 metro areas may lose jobs overall.

"We don’t see any help for cities coming down the road," said Boston Mayor Thomas Menino, President of the U.S. Conference of Mayors. "The recent tax package provided assistance to states, which mayors support, but left out any help for the nation’s cities, which drive our national economy."

The U.S. Conference of Mayors is the official nonpartisan organization of the nation's 1,183 U.S. cities with populations of 30,000 or more. The Role of Metro Areas in the US Economy: Employment Outlook is available at http://www.usmayors.org.