Useful Stats

After several years of not keeping pace with inflation, recently released figures for U.S. federal investment in research and experimental development (R&D) in FY 2025 suggest a potential downturn in both current and constant dollars is looming. The news from the latest Survey of Federal Funds for Research and Development comes on the heels of international coverage of China finally surpassed the US for global leadership in overall R&D investment. 

Total research and experimental development (R&D) performed in the U.S. reached nearly $1 trillion of expenditures in 2024, reveals new data from the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES). This represents a 6% increase over the prior year, a 101% increase in the past 10 years, and a nearly 16,000% increase in the past 70 years.

Adjusted for inflation, total R&D expenditures, relative to their 2024 values, have increased more modestly but still reflect impressive growth: 3% since 2023; 56% in the 10 years since 2015; and approximately 1,670% in the 70 years since 1955.

Figure 1 below includes two line charts, each with a line for billions of current and constant (2017) USD: GDP on the left and R&D expenditures on the right. Periods of recession are highlighted in grey for applicable years. Note that each chart has a different y-axis. 

Policymakers should be interested in which sectors are present in their region to ensure TBED investments and workforce priorities can have the greatest impact. Exploring gross domestic product (GDP) at the county level offers a detailed look at the economic output of sectors and how they shape local economies. At the county level, data for smaller or more rural counties may reveal nuances invisible when looking broadly at entire MSAs or states, particularly for those areas with lower populations.

Personal income has nearly quadrupled in constant dollars over the past 56 years, from approximately $791 billion in 1969 to $2.9 trillion by 2024 in inflation-adjusted 1969 USD ($24.9 trillion in current dollars, increasing an average of seven percent each year), reveals SSTI analysis of the full breadth of newly released U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data. Standardized by population, growth is more conservative, with an average annual current dollar increase of 5%; in 1969, per capita personal income (PCPI) was just $3,931, but by 2024 had risen to $8,100 when adjusted for inflation to 1969 USD ($69,273 in current dollars).

Many institutions of higher education spend millions of dollars each year on R&D, with 37 having spent over $1 billion in FY 2024. These expenditures are made to drive innovation and create new technologies, methodologies, and more. Past SSTI coverage of the new FY 2024 Higher Education Research and Development (HERD) Survey data release has explored the geographic spread of HERD expenditures at the state level. This edition of Useful Stats will explore HERD survey data at the institutional level for the 50 largest institutions by R&D expenditures and the sources of funds to allow them to conduct their work.

Higher Education Research and Development (HERD) expenditures grew in every state between Fiscal years (FYs) 2010 and 2024, rising 92% nationally over the 15-year period. Adjusted for inflation, five states and Puerto Rico instead experienced a real decline in HERD expenditures. Despite this broad growth, HERD expenditures remain highly concentrated, with five states having accounted for nearly 40% of all higher education R&D expenditures nationwide in FY 2024.

States invest heavily in academic research with the expectation that these efforts will advance scientific knowledge, support innovative industries, and strengthen local talent pipelines. Comparing research performance across state lines is difficult due to differences in academic landscapes: some may have large medical schools with high-cost labs, while others have research-active public universities in lower-cost fields or are more pedagogically focused. Article output is one way of measuring academic research. This edition of Useful Stats standardizes science and engineering (S&E) article output for peer-reviewed documents (e.g., articles, reviews, and conference proceedings) published in refereed scientific journals at the state level by two complementary numerators. These numerators showcase different facets of academic research productivity: output per million dollars of academic S&E R&D spending, and per 1,000 science, engineering, and health (SEH) doctorate holders employed in academia. Although similar, each highlights a distinct part of the research ecosystem, with one reflecting the intensity of research spending and the other the publishing activity of academic researchers themselves.

Just 19% of the approximately 25,000 census tracts potentially eligible for Opportunity Zone (OZ) designation are “More likely to attract OZ investment, with larger impact,” per the Urban Institute’s new OZ Designation Tool. The majority (68%) of potentially eligible tracts were found to be “Less likely to attract OZ investment,” while the remaining 13% were determined likely to attract capital regardless of OZ designation. Breaking the data down further, this article showcases state-level aggregations of the percentage of potentially eligible tracts across each categorization to paint a picture of which states stand to benefit the most from the OZ program based on the count of tracts likely to receive investments.

The U.S. Department of the Treasury (Treasury) recently issued three new FAQs for the State Small Business Credit Initiative 2.0 (SSBCI) program. These FAQs clarify and reiterate the timeline for the end of the Capital Program, and the deadlines by which participating jurisdictions must request disbursement of any remaining allocated Capital Program funds.

With federal R&D investments unlikely to keep pace with inflation or international competition based on the administration’s budget request, cuts to existing research grants, and Congress’s inability to pass a budget, business R&D investments become more critical for sustaining the competitiveness of regional innovation economies. Trends evident in new data released by the National Science Foundation point to areas of potential concern or need for state TBED policy attention and potential adjustment: business R&D is growing even more concentrated geographically, and for many areas of the country business investments likely are not growing at a sufficient pace to maintain the regions’ innovation capacity. 

In 2023, just four states comprised 54% of the nation’s domestic business R&D expenditures, a sharp increase from being less than 45% in 2014, SSTI analysis of new Business Enterprise Research and Development (BERD) survey data reveals. The consolidation of BERD expenditures in the top states may lead one to think that less R&D is occurring outside of the largest states, but this is not the case; 24 jurisdictions doubled BERD expenditures in the past decade, with all but one state increasing total expenditures. Adjusted for inflation, however, reveals a more modest nine jurisdictions doubled their business R&D activities, while all but five increased. These trends and more are explored in this edition of Useful Stats.

From 2022 to 2023, domestic R&D expenditures increased 4%, or $29 billion, but remained nearly unchanged when adjusted for inflation. This apparent slowdown follows a streak averaging nearly 12% ($59 billion) year-over-year growth from 2018 to 2022, and 8% over the past decade from 2014 to 2023. Adjusting for inflation paints a different picture of the growth trends, with a more modest annual average of 8% from 2018 to 2022 and 6% over the past decade. In this edition of Useful Stats, SSTI uses new Business Enterprise R&D (BERD) survey data to explore business R&D expenditures since 2009. Then, we present the data by sector and industry, allowing for closer analysis of which business R&D see the most investment in the U.S.