Tuesday’s elections resulted in a Democratic majority in the House, but the changes for the next Congress go far beyond this outcome. Flipping party control means new chairs for every committee in the House; many Senate Republicans in leadership positions are reaching their party’s term limits, yielding new committee seniority; and, retirements and incumbent losses yield further changes. For the bipartisan issues of science and innovation, this shake up will produce new opportunities and uncertainties.

SSTI board member Bruce Mehlman, a former George W. Bush administration official and founder of Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas, recently published a midterm election presentation that has been discussed by numerous DC publications. Mehlman included an analysis of the last 10 senatorial midterm elections (see slide 15). The results suggest that incumbent senators of a different party than the president are very likely to win reelection, even in states carried by the president.

As of this writing, control of Congress remains officially undecided, although the end result will likely be status quo: Republican control of the Senate and Democratic control of the House. While the discourse and activity around major legislation may not change, there will be changes to the committees that most strongly impact science and small business legislation. The new members will not be determined until the next session, but multiple departures from these committees are already known.

Senate

Enough races have now been called in the 2022 midterm elections to confirm that the Senate will remain under Democratic party control while the House will switch to the Republican party. If any legislation is going to advance to the White House over the next two years, the parties are going to need to work together — both across and within each chamber (where Senate filibuster rules and House politics are likely to make bipartisan votes a necessity to passing bills).

As of Thursday morning, party control of both chambers of Congress is undetermined, as final outcomes remain unknown for 44 House seats and three Senate seats (per the AP). Chamber control may drive the size of the next few federal budgets — affecting opportunities for additional science and innovation funding — and determines who will be chair versus ranking member of committees.