First-time beginning students looking to pursue post-secondary education tumbled this fall, showing a 16.1 percent decrease nationally when compared with last year’s figures, according to recently released data from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. That decline was even worse at community colleges, down 22.7 percent compared to a 1.4 percent increase the previous year.

Metropolitan areas in the U.S. with fewer than 370,000 residents are more likely to be more economically reliant on R&D performed by colleges and universities than larger metros, according to new SSTI analysis. Three data points are used to consider how R&D at institutions of higher education is impacting a region’s economy: NSF’s Higher Education R&D (HERD) data on expenditures at individual institutions; metro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; and population estimates from the Census Bureau.

The overall employment outlook for the recipients of doctorate degrees earned at U.S. institutions has improved from 2015 to 2019, while the research activities conducted by these highly trained and educated individuals has started to shift away from basic and applied research activities towards activities focused on design and development. Doctorate recipients play an essential role in developing the knowledge base leveraged in creating new technologies and companies in the innovation economy.

As state budgets move into the legislatures for final negotiations and approvals, the last of the governors have addressed their constituents and put forth their proposals. While a renewed sense of hope is seeping into the latest addresses, governors are still cautious and guarded in proposing new programs. Broadband, small business, education and workforce initiatives continue to be among the innovation-related initiatives announced by the state leaders, with the intent that those efforts will also boost the economic recovery of the states.

In Mississippi, the state auditor released a report  in September 2023 that rated academic degrees by whether the degree would lead to a well-paying job. He suggests that Mississippi invest more in programs in the subject areas leading to those high-paying, in-state jobs. Basing appropriations on immediate wage outcomes implies that near-term economic return is the only benefit that matters, and it is a theme that is recurring frequently.

Restrictions placed on registering for high-wage-potential academic majors have had an increasingly disproportionate adverse effect on students from underrepresented minority groups (URM: Black, Hispanic, and American Indian or Alaska Native), according to research from the Bookings Institution.

Institutions of higher education spent $97.8 billion on research and development (R&D) activities in fiscal year (FY) 2022, an increase of nearly 9% over the prior year’s $89.8 billion. Over the past decade of available data, from FY 2013-2022, higher education R&D expenditures have increased 46%, from $67.1 to $97.8 billion. However, when adjusted for inflation, the growth is more modest at 17%.

The United States is home to some of the world's most prestigious universities, each performing critical research that helps advance the country’s innovation economy. However, these universities are not evenly distributed across the country; many are concentrated within large cities in states where their spillover further impacts the local economies.

Research and Development (R&D) is an essential component of innovation and economic growth, where higher education institutions play a key role. However, with these institutions being responsible for funding just a quarter of all HERD expenditures, it is important to see the influence of outside funding sources on the fields of R&D.

The United States has been the top destination for those looking to study abroad for decades. Before the onset of the pandemic, over a million students flocked from abroad to attend U.S.-based universities. Now, having dropped by 15% at the onset of the pandemic, international student enrollment is beginning to recover. Despite this recovery, the U.S. is losing market share to countries like Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom resulting in negative economic consequences.

Less than half of one percent of Americans attend Ivy-Plus colleges, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Yet these twelve colleges account for more than 10% of Fortune 500 CEOs, a quarter of U.S. Senators, half of all Rhodes scholars, and three-fourths of Supreme Court justices appointed in the last half-century.

The number of graduate students in science, engineering, and health has grown from approximately 328,000 to 760,000 from 1975 to 2021, a 132% increase, according to the National Science Foundation’s (NSF) Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering (GSS).

Total postsecondary enrollment is down 5% from fall 2019 to fall 2023 due to a 6% drop in undergraduate students. While undergraduates are down, graduate students have surpassed pre-pandemic enrollment numbers by 4%. Enrollments in undergraduate and graduate certificates are up significantly from pre-pandemic values (16% and 21%), while enrollment in associate degrees are down more than any other undergraduate credential (-14%).

Bachelor’s degrees are no longer required for many jobs

The landscape of American higher education has transformed dramatically since Harvard’s founding in 1636. What began as a handful of institutions primarily focused on training clergymen in the American colonies has expanded into a vast and diverse system of colleges and universities. Today, students pursue degrees across a wide and ever-growing range of fields.

In 2000, the United States was among the global leaders in educational attainment, boasting the third-highest percentage of its 25- to-64-year-old population with a postsecondary degree across the 38 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) nations. However, over the past two decades, the U.S. has gradually slipped in the rankings, falling to ninth place by 2022 even as the percentage of the population with a postsecondary degree increased from 36% to 50%.

The educational landscape of the United States has undergone significant transformation over the past three decades, with the percentage of individuals 25 and older having earned a bachelor's degree steadily increasing since the 1990s. Nationwide, 20% of those aged at least 25 had a bachelor’s degree in 1990, while in 2021 this figure jumped to 38%. However, educational attainment varies greatly across states. Many states, such as Massachusetts, Maryland, Colorado, New Jersey, and Rhode Island, alongside 15 other states, fall above the national value of 38% in 2021.

Two-year colleges have gone through various changes in recent decades. The following are highlights of some of them.

College enrollment

With classes resuming for the fall term, SSTI thought now would be a good time to reflect on the state of higher education. In this issue and the September 5 issue, we’ll examine where higher ed has been and where it currently stands. The post-secondary education system is the cornerstone of the American innovation system—as R&D performer, moving research into the marketplace, offering technical assistance to companies, and supplying a skilled workforce.

By 2031, 72 percent of jobs in the US will require postsecondary education and/or training, according to a 2023 report by Georgetown University. The authors contend, “Postsecondary education is no longer just the preferred pathway to middle-class jobs—it is, increasingly, the only pathway.”

Public perceptions of higher education are complex and multifaceted. A Chronicle of Higher Education 2023 report found that while Americans believe in the value of a college credential, they are not convinced higher education is fulfilling its promise to society; nonetheless, many recent polls, surveys, and reports also conclude that people, whether they have a four-year degree or not, would advise others to pursue one.

For the last 40 years, higher education has been the dominant performer of basic research in the United States, but there has been a slide in higher education’s share over the last 20 years as businesses have increased their performance of basic R&D (Figure 1). If the current trendline continues, businesses will soon surpass higher education as basic R&D performers and become the predominant basic R&D performer just as they have been in applied R&D for decades.

With classes resuming for the fall term, SSTI continues its reflection on the state of higher education. In last week's issue, today's and next week's, we’re examining where higher ed has been and where it currently stands. The post-secondary education system is the cornerstone of the American innovation system—as an R&D performer, moving research into the marketplace, offering technical assistance to companies, and supplying a skilled workforce.

Total student loan debt in the United States increased 558% from the first quarter of 2003 to the second quarter of 2024, increasing from $240 billion to $1.58 trillion, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data.