Although freshman enrollment in higher education increased 4.3% in fall 2022 compared to the previous year, total enrollment declined by 0.6% and still remains below pre-pandemic levels. Total enrollment of both undergraduate and graduate levels is down about 1.11 million students (5.8%) compared to fall 2019. Freshman enrollment in community colleges, which had taken a greater hit during the pandemic, is up 6.1% over fall 2019.

The U.S. National Science Foundation announced a new $60 million investment led by NSF's Directorate for Technology, Innovation and Partnerships — the Accelerating Research Translation, or ART, program. The program will build capacity and infrastructure at higher education institutions that are needed to strengthen and scale the translation of basic research outcomes into impactful solutions and practice.

As SSTI reported earlier this fall in its series of articles on higher education, college tuition and student loan debt are rising.

This year’s legislative sessions saw a handful of governors and lawmakers proposing noteworthy reforms or other changes to their states’ institutions of higher education—from system overhauls to the expansion of tuition-free community college programs—all in efforts to align their state’s education investments with current and future workforce needs, as well as address future costs under tightening budgets.

Restructuring higher education systems

State support for higher education in the United States over the last four decades can best be characterized as having fluctuations and shifts in priorities. Using fiscal year (FY) 1980 as a starting point, while overall state support for higher education has grown, it has done so with volatility driven in part by decreased revenue as a result of recessions, and it has frequently taken years for state support to recover to pre-recession levels. In four states, state support on a constant 1983-dollar basis is still less than was spent in 1980.

The most recent  Higher Education R&D (HERD) survey revealed the largest year-over-year percentage increase in higher education R&D since 2002 to 2003 and dollar increase across all fiscal years (FYs) captured by the survey. HERD expenditures breached the $100 billion mark in 2023, having grown 11% from $97.8 billion in 2022 to $108.8 billion in 2023 (7% in constant 2017 dollars, from $82.9 to $89 billion).

Higher education R&D expenditures, while continuing to steadily increase, have not grown evenly across state lines. This matters to successful TBED policymakers because a strong R&D enterprise within a state’s public and private institutions of higher education can and should provide a consistent source of skilled workers, new technology, and sources for innovation-driven business growth. So where is R&D growing?

A recent Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City working paper explores the relationship between inter-state mobility, earnings gains, and initial wealth of young college graduates over time, highlighting the impact of debt. The paper Should I Stay or Should I Go? Inter-state Mobility and Earnings Gains of Young College Graduates by Andrew Glover and José Mustre-del-Río proposes a model to explain the decline in mobility.

Readers may have noticed the most populous states end up topping many of the statistical tables related to economic development. Normalizing the data by some relevant, related measure can provide a higher quality look that is a little closer to the “apples to apples” appeal that might help influence some policy issues. For this week’s edition of Useful Stats, SSTI is exploring research intensity as a component of state gross domestic product (GDP) and the research load “carried” by each member of the R&D personnel within the state’s higher education community.

Higher education R&D (HERD) expenditures have steadily increased over time. They’ve soared past $100 billion in the most recent data year, fiscal year (FY) 2023, growing in every state. However, the gains are not shared equally in all fields of research.

The short answer to the question, “Is college still worth it?” is, “It depends.”

Attending higher education institutions may impart an array of societal and personal development benefits. Still, one factor of increasing import that raises the question of the worthiness of attaining a college education in a market-driven economy is the personal cost involved. The question becomes even more pertinent based on three trends: rising costs, decreasing employment opportunities for college graduates and a fair share of Americans having little or no confidence in higher education.