VC investment trends: Shrinking, growing, or just moving?

While repeatedly writing about VC investment trends over the past year can feel a little like the movie Groundhog Day, like the film, the story is more nuanced than it would first appear. Sure, the overall message of high-dollar deals driving headlines and boosting investment levels to record heights persists, but there are some emerging trends deeper in the data that bear exploring to see if there are issues or opportunities that impact how TBED investors allocate resources going forward.  

While repeatedly writing about VC investment trends over the past year can feel a little like the movie Groundhog Day, like the film, the story is more nuanced than it would first appear. Sure, the overall message of high-dollar deals driving headlines and boosting investment levels to record heights persists, but there are some emerging trends deeper in the data that bear exploring to see if there are issues or opportunities that impact how TBED investors allocate resources going forward. 

What to expect when you’re expecting (investment returns)

Following SSTI’s recent look at the timing and type of exits, we continue our look at investment activity to characterize returns on investments so that TBED investors can more accurately project and adjust program parameters to support long-term sustainability. Accurate data on venture capital investment returns and fund performance on private investment vehicles is not readily or consistently available. Anecdotal stories  and the occasional press release on a major transaction exist, but VC exits are often done quietly. As such, parties interested in understanding performance outcomes must rely on focused reports and other aggregate data. 

What TBED investors need to know about exits

The venture capital market is undergoing significant structural changes, and TBED organizations are under increasing pressure to adjust existing and develop new strategies to meet evolving market conditions and address emerging gaps. For TBED investors, modeling how long investments must be held and what the exit paths are is critical for setting expectations with stakeholders, projecting fund utilization, and anticipating returns that can be reinvested. To that end, SSTI examined over 6,000 exits from VC-backed companies listed in PitchBook with identified nonprofit or government investments to characterize what TBED investors can expect. Our analysis found that it is taking more time and more rounds for companies to find successful exits, putting additional pressure on venture development organization (VDO) and other TBED portfolios by consuming scarce resources and limiting opportunities to reinvest proceeds. 

Entrenched parties, resistance to change, stifling economic opportunities in ESG

By April of 2023, state legislatures had filed 99 anti-ESG bills, according to Reuters. Many of these bills are motivated by the perception that investors who prioritize environmental, social, and governance (ESG) compliance by companies in which they are investing are imposing their political beliefs on others.

New SEC regulations on investments related to China

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently released guidance through its Division of Corporation Finance to address the risks of investing in companies that are based in or have a majority of their business operations in the People’s Republic of China. This action continues a trend of expanding regulation of investments related to China, and the SEC’s statement clarifies that the purpose of the disclosures is to protect investors from recently-enacted restrictions by the Chinese government on China-based companies in regard to raising capital from foreign investors.