Staff Picks

"US consumer debt outstanding unexpectedly surged by the most on record in December, reflecting massive increases in credit-card balances and non-revolving credit. Total credit jumped $40.8 billion after a revised $5.4 billion decrease a month earlier, according to Federal Reserve data released Feb 7." (gms)

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"In 2024, US manufacturing experienced continued investment even as higher interest rates and a challenging business environment have created obstacles to near-term industry growth. Deloitte’s analysis of S&P Global data reveals that while 2024 began with the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) moving into expansion for the first time since April 2023,1 which continued for the first half of the year, weaker demand nudged the PMI back into contraction in July 2024.2 In addition, the November 2024 PMI report identified an ongoing combination of falling orders and rising customer inventories, which could signal the need for manufacturers to further cut production in the coming months.3 While the rate of inflation has diminished, manufacturers continue to face higher costs: The producer price index for input materials and components seems to have stabilized but remains high,4 while total compensation, which includes wages and benefits, has continued its upward climb.5" MLH

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"Tax incentives are one of the primary ways states seek to spur business expansion, increase job numbers, and otherwise strengthen their economies. Often, these incentives target small businesses, in an effort to help them grow or attract new sources of funding. However, incentives may not be the most effective tool for the job of helping small businesses."

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"Quantum can seem intimidating because it deals with the granular and fuzzy nature of the universe and the physical behavior of its tiniest particles that we cannot see with our eyes. Just because we haven’t experienced the world of quantum the way we can see the effects of gravity doesn’t mean quantum has to be “weird” or “spooky.”  " -CAN

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"Taiwan will support companies that plan to relocate to the United States, including helping them find partners, the economy ministry said on Monday, outlining assistance it will offer after U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs. Trump's orders for additional levies of 25% on imports from Mexico and most goods from Canada, as well as 10% on goods from China, were light on detail. But they kick in on Tuesday and have jolted markets as investors feared a broader trade war could severely hurt global growth." MLH

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"The Survey of Community College Outcomes (SCCO) is the cornerstone of the Richmond Fed's Community College Initiative. The SCCO is designed to collect data that represent the unique role community colleges play in educating and training workers at every stage of their lives. Why do we focus on community colleges? Community colleges differ from four-year institutions in their mission, the students they serve, and the programs they offer. Yet community colleges are often evaluated based on standard higher education metrics that were designed for four-year institutions. As researchers with a congressionally mandated focus on maximum employment, we seek to equip decision-makers with high-quality data and analysis about the institutions tasked with skilling the workers of today and tomorrow. By collecting targeted data on community college enrollment, including non-credit students and dually enrolled high school students, we can illustrate the diverse ways community colleges serve students. Our signature metric — the Richmond Fed Success Rate — is a community college-specific measure of institution-level student success. Traditional measures, such as graduation rates, do not account for the range of pathways community college students pursue or how students pursue these pathways. By adjusting the cohort used to calculate traditional graduation rates, we capture a broader range of students achieving success to reflect the full spectrum of students attending community colleges." MLH

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"Landing a professional job in the U.S. has become so tough that even Harvard Business School says its M.B.A.s can’t solely rely on the university’s name to open doors anymore. Twenty-three percent of job-seeking Harvard M.B.A.s who graduated last spring were still looking for work three months after leaving campus. That share is up from 20% the prior year, during a cooling white-collar labor market; the figure was 10% in 2022, according to the school.  “We’re not immune to the difficulties of the job market,” said Kristen Fitzpatrick, who oversees career development and alumni relations for HBS. “Going to Harvard is not going to be a differentiator. You have to have the skills.” Harvard isn’t the only elite business school where recent grads seem to be stumbling on their way into the job market. More than a dozen top-tier M.B.A. programs, including those at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, Stanford’s Graduate School of Business and New York University’s Stern School of Business, had worse job-placement outcomes last year than any other in recent memory."

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"In a new paper, “The Simple Macroeconomics of AI,” MIT Institute Professor Daron Acemoglu has a more conservative estimate of how AI will affect the U.S. economy over the next 10 years. Estimating that only about 5% of tasks will be able to be profitably performed by AI within that time frame, the GDP boost would likely be closer to 1% over that period, Acemoglu suggests. This is a “nontrivial, but modest effect, and certainly much less than both the revolutionary changes some are predicting and the less hyperbolic but still substantial improvements forecast by Goldman Sachs and the McKinsey Global Institute,” he writes. " MLH

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"At a town hall on 12 December at AGU's Annual Meeting 2024 in Washington, D.C., the ocean sciences community gathered to discuss the future of U.S. ocean research capabilities. The presenters were clear: Decommissioning of research vessels and a lack of funding for new ones have put ocean scientists in the United States at a global disadvantage. Since the 1980s, the country's Academic Research Fleet has dwindled from 34 vessels to 17. "If we keep at that pace, we're not going to even be in the conversation for seagoing ocean science," said Paula Bontempi, dean of the University of Rhode Island's Graduate School of Oceanography. "That's a problem," she said. National Science Foundation (NSF) funding, though, has allowed for construction of a small group of new ocean research vessels. Scientists hope these Regional Class Research Vessels (RCRVs), named for their planned use close to U.S. coasts, will play a small part in bolstering U.S. ocean research capabilities." MLH

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"Maine joined 21 other states in urging the U.S. Supreme Court to save a program designed to make telephone service and internet access affordable for low-income, rural and tribal residents.  Maine Attorney General Aaron Frey and Public Advocate William Harwood signed an amicus brief filed Thursday that asks the nation's highest court to reverse a lower court judgement that found the Universal Service Fund unconstitutional.  The fund in question was established through the Telecommunications Act of 1996 and has since provided significant financial support for Mainers, according to a news release from the Maine Office of the Public Advocate. " MLH

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"A flurry of scientific gatherings and panels across federal science agencies were canceled on Wednesday, at a time of heightened sensitivity about how the Trump administration will shift the agencies' policies and day-to-day affairs.  Several meetings of National Institutes of Health study sections, which review applications for fellowships and grants, were canceled without being rescheduled, according to agency notices reviewed by STAT. A Feb. 20-21 meeting of the National Vaccine Advisory Committee, a panel that advises the leadership of the Department of Health and Human Services on vaccine policy, was also canceled. So was a meeting of the Presidential Advisory Council for Combating Antibiotic-Resistant Bacteria that was scheduled for Jan. 28 and 29. " MLH

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"The American Association of Colleges and Universities, in partnership with the American Association of University Professors and NORC at the University of Chicago, conducted a national survey of faculty in higher education to understand their perspectives and experiences related to academic freedom. The sample included faculty of all ranks and disciplines at public and private, two-year and four-year institutions across the United States. Funded by the Arthur Vining Davis Foundations, the survey was administered online between December 2023 and February 2024.  The term "academic freedom" was defined for respondents as "the freedom of teachers or researchers in higher education to investigate and discuss the issues in their academic field, and to teach or publish findings without interference from political figures, boards of trustees, donors, or other entities." In addition, it was noted that "academic freedom also protects the right of faculty members to speak freely when participating in institutional governance, as well as to speak freely as citizens." " MLH

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AI is poised to significantly lower pharmaceutical R&D costs through efficient drug discovery, optimized clinical trials, and predictive data analysis, according to a GlobalData survey. The pharmaceutical industry professionals surveyed by GlobalData believe AI will play a crucial role in streamlining drug development processes and minimizing costly failures through data-driven predictions and effectiveness assessments. (gms)

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After two years of relative stability, 2025 marks an inflection point for many state budgets. Although tax revenue has declined nationwide since the record highs of 2021 and 2022, most states had large surpluses and leftover federal aid that helped lawmakers pass budgets with a minimum of fuss in 2023 and 2024. Now, however, lawmakers face tougher budget decisions as the post-pandemic transition period ends. State budget stresses are more widespread than they have been at any time since at least 2020. (gms) 1/13/2025)

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The world economy resisted battering by conflicts and inflation last year and is expected to grow a subdued 2.8% in 2025, the United Nations said Thursday. The report says the U.S. economy outperformed expectations last year thanks to consumer and public-sector spending, but growth is expected to slow from 2.8% to 1.9% this year.

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Hopes of keeping global warming below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels have been all but extinguished after new data confirmed 2024 was the first calendar year to see average temperatures breach that critical threshold. Scientists agree that the surge in temperature was caused mostly by the continuation of human-caused climate change and an El Niño weather pattern, which tends to push up global temperatures. But the scale and persistence of the heat has shocked many experts, who expected temperatures to subside once El Niño ended in May 2024. Instead, they remained at record levels throughout the rest of the year. (gms)

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