Useful Stats

In a country marked by regional diversity, gaining insights into economic performance often means looking beyond conventional state and county boundaries to economic hubs. This edition of Useful Stats uses Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data to first compare U.S. metropolitan and micropolitan GDPs broken down by industry for the last 20+ years, then consider each Metropolitan Statistical Area’s GDP by private industry, highlighting patterns and changes over the past decades.  

Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), as defined by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB), “have at least one urban area of 50,000 or more population plus adjacent territory that has a high degree of social and economic integration with the core urban area as measured by commuting ties.” Approximately 86% of the nation's population resides within the 392 MSAs in the U.S. and Puerto Rico.[1]

Overall U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) has steadily increased over the past decade. However, the growth in the sectors which drive it has been uneven. Data from 2014 through 2023 reveals that sectoral contributions to private industry GDP have shifted from manufacturing (down 1.57 percentage points since 2014) and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction (down 1.05), to professional and business services (up 0.85) and construction (up 0.72). Differences in the sectoral makeup of private industry GDP at the state level show that most states share similar primary sectors but vastly different second-largest sectors. Significant changes in federal policy may affect GDP composition going forward. 

All data used in this article comes from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) GDP and Personal Income tables. Data used for GDP is in millions of current, not adjusted for inflation, USD, and is for private industries. All sectors and industries referenced are based on the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) used by the BEA.

Higher education R&D (HERD) expenditures have steadily increased over time. They’ve soared past $100 billion in the most recent data year, fiscal year (FY) 2023, growing in every state. However, the gains are not shared equally in all fields of research.

SSTI analyzed HERD Survey data, finding that in the 10 FYs since 2013, science R&D fields, led by the life sciences, were responsible for the largest dollar growths. In contrast, non-S&E fields, led by education, experienced the largest relative growth. SSTI has examined these shifts over the past decade at the national level and broken down expenditures by R&D field at the state and institutional level for FY 2023. This edition of Useful Stats provides the resulting comprehensive picture of HERD expenditures by R&D field.

The Feb. 7, 2025, memo from the NIH Office of the Director (NOT-OD-25-068), now on hold because of two federal judge actions, announced the implementation of a flat 15% Facilities and Administrative fee (F&A) “across all NIH grants.” While the historic average F&A, or indirect cost rate, paid for by NIH is between 27 and 28%, the memo stated, the agency has previously allowed private small businesses without a negotiated F&A rate to charge up to 40% on their SBIR/STTR awards without further justification, drastically lowering their administrative burdens. Thus, a flat 15% fee on F&A if ever implemented would likely lead to some hardship for the small businesses.

Readers may have noticed the most populous states end up topping many of the statistical tables related to economic development. Normalizing the data by some relevant, related measure can provide a higher quality look that is a little closer to the “apples to apples” appeal that might help influence some policy issues. For this week’s edition of Useful Stats, SSTI is exploring research intensity as a component of state gross domestic product (GDP) and the research load “carried” by each member of the R&D personnel within the state’s higher education community.

HERD and GDP

Higher education R&D (HERD) intensity as it relates to GDP, calculated as HERD expenditures as a percentage of total GDP, indicates the relative importance of R&D spending by colleges and universities to their regional economies and varies greatly across the U.S. Note that HERD survey data is released by Fiscal Year (FY), while GDP data, drawn from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), is released by calendar year.

SSTI’s new analysis of NIH data reveals the agency’s external R&D spending per award has been essentially treading water for the past 25 years in terms of real dollars—rising just 4% since FY 2000 when adjusted for inflation. This slow growth comes despite the crucial role NIH funding plays in technology-based economic development (TBED) policies across many states, particularly in the biomedical and life sciences. However, NIH funding remains a major economic driver as the world’s largest funder of biomedical and behavioral research, having generated nearly $2.50 of economic activity for every dollar spent in FY 2023, according to NIH estimates. While these awards support innovation, academic research, and regional economies, their purchasing power has eroded over time, barely keeping pace with inflation.

Fewer of the youngest and later stage innovation-driven companies are receiving private venture capital at a time when the country needs more of both to retain our global economic leadership, according to data released in the latest report from PitchBook and NVCA. Across 2024, United States VC has seen an increase in overall deal value (+$47 billion) despite a decrease in deal count (-936) since the prior year, reveals the Q4 2024 Venture Monitor report. Values for each metric still sit below the pandemic-induced highs in 2021 and 2022. By stage, 2024 has, to date, a larger proportion of early-stage and venture growth deals, balanced by a lower proportion of pre-seed/seed and late-stage deals.

This edition of Useful Stats will explore 10-year trends, from 2015 through 2024, in venture activity by stage and state using the Q4 2024 Venture Monitor report’s data.

Higher education R&D expenditures, while continuing to steadily increase, have not grown evenly across state lines. This matters to successful TBED policymakers because a strong R&D enterprise within a state’s public and private institutions of higher education can and should provide a consistent source of skilled workers, new technology, and sources for innovation-driven business growth. So where is R&D growing?

The most recent  Higher Education R&D (HERD) survey revealed the largest year-over-year percentage increase in higher education R&D since 2002 to 2003 and dollar increase across all fiscal years (FYs) captured by the survey. HERD expenditures breached the $100 billion mark in 2023, having grown 11% from $97.8 billion in 2022 to $108.8 billion in 2023 (7% in constant 2017 dollars, from $82.9 to $89 billion). Federally funded HERD expenditures continue to increase in dollars, but decrease in overall share, while business and institution funds grow as a proportion.

As seen in Figure 1, since 1973, the earliest data available, HERD expenditures have shown a consistent upward trend in both constant and current dollars. However, growth in current dollars has been more pronounced due to inflation. Expenditures reflect real growth when adjusted for inflation (constant 2017 dollars).

Personal income[1] has increased from $1.25 trillion in 1974 to $23.38 trillion in 2023 nationwide, a nearly nineteen-fold increase over the past 50 years. Meanwhile, per capita personal income (PCPI), a metric of personal income standardized by population, has only seen a twelvefold increase from $5,836 to $69,810 over the same period. SSTI reveals these numbers from its analysis of new U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data.

SSTI also found that, since 1974, both the average and median annual percentage change in personal income are 6%, with just one drop (-3%) in the last half-century at the onset of the Great Recession from 2008 to 2009. PCPI follows a similar trend at a 5% average and median percentage change with just one drop (-4%) during the same years.

The United States Department of the Treasury’s (Treasury) new 2022-2023 State Small Business Credit Initiative (SSBCI) 2.0 Annual Report highlights the nearly $10 billion program to enhance access to capital for small businesses, particularly those in underserved communities. Data from the participating jurisdiction’s first 18 months—from August 5, 2022 through December 31, 2023—reveals approximately $750 million expended SSBCI dollars, resulting in $3.1 billion in overall new financing, including $2.6 billion in private investments, and 46,200 jobs reported expected to be created or retained (20,600 created and 25,600 retained). These funds have supported nearly 3,900 loans or investments, with 75% of transactions directed toward underserved businesses, including 40% for minority-owned and 31% for women-owned or controlled companies.

Manufacturing industries accounted for approximately $372 billion, or 54%, of all domestic business enterprise R&D (BERD) expenditures in 2022, up 36% from $274 billion in 2018. Despite this increase of nearly $100 billion over the past five years, the share of BERD expenditures in manufacturing industries has decreased eight percentage points from its 2018 value of 62%. Meanwhile, companies in nonmanufacturing industries captured by the BERD survey outpaced their counterpart’s growth, having increased $152 billion, or 91%, over the same period, leading to an eight percentage point increase in share of total—from 38% to 46%.